I think there’s little reason to expect the crash is over. I’ve learned my lesson about trying to time the market and no longer do it but I doubt the real effects of COVID-19 are priced in.
If it turns out to be SARS 2.0, I’m wrong. But so far that looks unlikely. It looks more like the 1918 Spanish influenza–in fatality rates, not stock market impact:
However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu. Of course, the Spanish flu occurred in 1918 while World War I was raging in Europe so the war had a larger impact on the stock market than the flu. There were few if any global supply chains that the Spanish Flu could disrupt because the war made supply chains nonexistent.
Maybe globalism ain’t all that grand after all? I saw headlines early this week about the elites fleeing to New Zealand. Then I saw headlines later this week about COVID-19 appearing in New Zealand. Ain’t nowhere to run.
I think there’s little reason to expect the crash is over. I’ve learned my lesson about trying to time the market and no longer do it but I doubt the real effects of COVID-19 are priced in.
If it turns out to be SARS 2.0, I’m wrong. But so far that looks unlikely. It looks more like the 1918 Spanish influenza–in fatality rates, not stock market impact:
Maybe globalism ain’t all that grand after all? I saw headlines early this week about the elites fleeing to New Zealand. Then I saw headlines later this week about COVID-19 appearing in New Zealand. Ain’t nowhere to run.